Pipelines Won’t Shield Middle East Oil Exports from Iran’s Reach

The recent announcements of new pipeline projects aimed at reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz have sparked both optimism and skepticism. While these infrastructure developments may provide some relief to oil producers in the region, they are unlikely to completely insulate them from the threat posed by Iran.

Pipelines themselves are vulnerable to disruption. As geopolitical analyst Jennifer Li pointed out, Iran has demonstrated its ability to target pipeline infrastructure with relative ease. The April attack on a pumping station on Saudi’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, which resulted in a 700,000 bpd throughput reduction, serves as a stark reminder of this vulnerability.

Iran’s tactics extend beyond targeting ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The country has shown willingness to disrupt oil exports through other means, including using proxy forces to attack loading facilities and pumping stations. Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy, noted that “The problem isn’t the waterway; it’s that Iran can use weapons to attack these facilities.”

Iran’s strategy is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz or even the Middle East region. The country has also been accused of using its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten oil exports through the Red Sea, a development with significant implications for global energy markets.

The planned expansion of pipeline capacity in the Middle East may provide short-term relief to oil producers but does not address the underlying issue. As Li noted, “Pipelines are more of a geopolitical hedge against disruptions in Hormuz than a replacement for the strait.” This is because even with increased pipeline capacity, the region’s oil exports remain dependent on a complex web of infrastructure and supply chains that can be disrupted by Iran or its proxies.

The fact that new pipelines may not completely eliminate the threat to Middle East oil exports raises questions about their long-term sustainability. As global energy demand continues to rise, will these new pipeline developments be enough to meet the needs of a growing market? Or will they simply create new vulnerabilities for producers and consumers alike?

Looking ahead, it is clear that Iran’s tactics will continue to pose a significant threat to Middle East oil exports. The recent saber-rattling over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has raised concerns about potential further disruptions in the region.

The Middle East’s energy producers must come to terms with the reality that their reliance on pipelines will not insulate them from the threat posed by Iran. Instead, they may need to consider more radical solutions, such as diversifying their export routes or investing in new infrastructure projects less vulnerable to disruption.

As the stakes continue to rise in the region, one thing is clear: the Middle East’s oil exports remain a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between producers, consumers, and Iran.